Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Record Low Sea Ice

One of the claims of global warming denialists has been that climate models are not totally reliable. Simply because they predict a particular outcome, we should not treat it as certain.

One of the fallacies that they used was to assert that if an outcome is in doubt that we should not worry about it - we should only worry about the outcomes we know about.

Unfortunately, 'uncertainty' means that the odds are just as good that the outcome will be worse than expected, as it is that they will be better than expected.

So, while climate specialists have been thinking that we could lose the Arctic sea ice during the summer by 2070, recent measurements suggests that we could lose it by 2030 instead. CNN reports (Arctic Sea Ice Cover at Record Low) that the Arctic sea ice cover has shattered - and I mean, demolished - its previous record (for October 2005) for the least amount of sea ice - a 20% loss.

Since sea ice reflects sunlight back into space (being white), while sea water absorbs solar energy (being of a darker color), this is a 'positive feedback mechanism' - an example of global warming producing effects that result in more and faster global warming.

I continue to hold that the people of Exxon-Mobile and other industries that fed a campaign of doubt - to cloud the public thinking on a matter of global importance because it was profitable for them to do so - puts them morally on a par with Hitler and Stalin. Indeed, it will almost certainly turn out to be the case that Hitler and Stalin were moral saints, compared to the people involved in this campaign.

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